The same day as the opening ceremonies of the 2008 Olympic games in Beijing, China began, Russian tanks rolled into Southern Ossetia; the first time the Russian military has made an assault on foreign soil since Afghanistan, in 1989. It seems this situation has been flaring up for some time, yet its only after a war springs up literally overnight, during the eve of Olympic competition that the world sort-of takes notice. Some estimates now have the civilian death toll at 2000 since friday, though it depends from whom you get your information. The conflict between the two countries is a very volatile situation, one that the popular media has largely ignored. Instead they are deciding to focus more on things like John Edwards's extra-marital affair. Coverage of this battle within the media is confined to five minute segments with brief clips of video and statistical data. I have seen better reporting concerning baseball games. So, information on what is exactly is happening and why is really hard to come by. In fact, most of the information seems to be based on mere speculation than hard fact.
First, is the theory that Russia has invaded Georgia for one of two reasons. One, it is assumed that Russia is making a tit-for-tat attack on Southern Ossetia due to the western nations willingness to recognize Kosovo as an independent country. Russia has already stated they will not do so. Kosovo declared its independence on February 17th, 2008, and almost immediately there was talk of Russia wanting to cause a stir in the Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. However, the threat was largly considered out of the realm of possibility because of the two regions small stature. Both regions are within the Georgian borders but considered autonomous of their government and though both have declared independence, it is not recognized by the international community for some reason. In March of 2008, Abkhazia announced it's wish to follow the likes of Kosovo and gain it's independence, however opposition of this was expressed by, not only Russia, but also Georgia, whose President Mikheil Saakashvili, had said his goal was to bring both Abkhazia and South Ossetia, who announced its independence in 1999, back under Georgian control. Two, NATO made a statement indicating Georgia's eventual inclusion into the organization and Russia strongly opposes any eastward expansion NATO. Some see the Russian action as retaliation for NATO's decision.
Mikheil Saakashvili
Another account suggests that it was Georgia who moved into the territory unprovoked killing hundreds of civilians, but who really "fired the first shot", Russia or Georgia is still under debate by both sides and it may take some time before the truth is known. It is speculated upon in the west that Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is the real brains behind the operation and that the new "President" Medvedev is his lap dog; Russia now in reality being under the guise of a pseudo-democratic system. Indeed, it doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility for an ex-KGB operative as Putin; who is believed by some to have orchestrated the Thallium poisoning death of ex-KGB spy Alexander Litvinenko, who frequently spoke out against Putin. Alexander Litvinenko, also believed it was Putin who had ordered him to be killed. If such allegations are indeed true, it gives us some valuable insight into just what kind of person Putin is.
Alexander Litvinenko
Vladimir Putin
Looking on at the conflict in Georgia we can definitely see some cunning behind the attacks execution, for instance, it being at a time where the world is greatly distracted by the Beijing Olympic Games. Is this the ingenuity of a local militia, or does it seem more likely a plan devised by a organized system of government? Due to the escalating hostility in the region over the last couple weeks and Russia's presence in South Ossetia already, a push to entice Georgia to defend itself wouldn't be to difficult too accomplish. The conflict, which is being called the worst since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, began on the 8th when Russia invaded the territory citing the need to protect the citizens of Southern Ossetia, of whom 70,000 are have said to accepted Russian passports. Georgia had sent forces in to engage the local militia, which had attacked Georgian forces days prior and who was supplied weapons by the Russian Peace Keepers in the region. Both sides are accusing the other of war crimes and Russian papers report that they decided to attack due to the crimes against humanity at the hands of the Georgians, yet, the battle has pressed on past the borders of South Ossetia and Russian forces have taken control of the city of Gori, just south of South Ossetia and east of the capital of Tbilisi, and Russian air strikes continue to pummel the city; bombs directly striking apartment buildings and homes.
I believe Putin's past actions, reputation and words concerning Kosovo, NATO, Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia makes the Russians account highly suspect, because either it is the western world and media using propaganda to lie to the world and Georgia sacrificing its own people and possible inclusion into NATO just to make Russia look bad, or it is an Ex-KGB Communist Sympathizer lying to the people of the world. To me it makes no logical sense that Georgia would go to these kind of extremes, the risks and consequences far outweighing that of any possible benefit to wage an information war against Russia; though granted, politics isn't always logical. Furthermore, it should be also noted and taken into account that the 1100 mile Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline runs through Georgia, and is the ONLY oil and gas route in that region of the world to bypass Russia completely to get to European markets. The Russians have already reportedly attacked oil refineries within Georgian borders, and the pipeline itself. However, due to all the mixed, conflicting data coming out of the region, we need an international inquiry into the events, so hard data can be gathered so the US and our allies can make informed decisions concerning the crisis. However, I believe timidity in this situation could be dangerous for we could see another Cambodia or Kuwait, we could be allies with a country guilty of grievous war crimes, which would obliterate any positive foreign relations, or more frighteningly; we could be experiencing the birth pains of a New Cold War.
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